STORM FORECAST
VALID Sun 12 Mar 06:00 - Mon 13 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 11 Mar 19:46 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

A threat level 1 is forecast across the Aegean Sea and W Turkey.

SYNOPSIS

Main feature remains strong large-scale upper trough ATTM over the central Mediterranean ... which will eventually evolve into an upper cut-off low late on Sunday. Associated SFC low should cross the N Ionian Sea on Sunday and move into the S Balkans ... and cover most of SE Europe. Weakly unstable subtropical air is present E of the circulation ... with unseasonably cold air spreading across the N Mediterranean on the low's W side.

DISCUSSION

...Aegean region...
Marginal severe TSTM threat should persist across the Aegean region. Thermodynamic fields are expected to remain quite weak ... featuring MLCAPE's on the order of 100 J/kg ... with little capping. However ... strong kinematic fields will be in place ... with 20 to 25 m/s 500 hPa flow ... 15 - 20 m/s 850 hPa flow and 0-3 km SRH on the order of 300 J/kg over the eastern Aegean. Given rather strong large-scale ascent ... rather widespread TSTMS should develop ... some of them being capable of severe weather. Especially over the E Aegean and extreme W Turkey ... tornadoes will be possible with any SFC-based storm that forms ... otherwise ... marginally severe winds gusts and hail may be possible. Confidence in SFC-based development is sufficiently high to warrant a level one threat.

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